Return to listing
Every few years, warm water builds in the Pacific Ocean, triggering an El Niño climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide.
The El Niño predicted to start in 2026 and likely to carry into 2027 is so intense that it’s been dubbed a “super” El Niño.
Record breaking warm waters means the impacts of El Niño could be more intense than anyone alive today has experienced. While we don’t exactly know what this means for storms, drought and overall risk, we do know that it’s important to stay vigilant and get prepared.
ENSO Nino 3.4: Historical Record and Current Forecast (May 2026) https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/
The following resources were created to help you prepare for specific hazards, all of which can be affected by El Niño. Knowing the risks that may increase in your area can help you decide what to prioritize.
El Niño associated risks:
El Niño is a periodic climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years when unusually warm water accumulates in the Pacific Ocean.
This shift in ocean temperatures disrupts the circulation of winds and moisture around the globe, triggering a cascade of weather changes far beyond the Pacific itself. Though it typically lasts nine to 12 months, its effects on rainfall, temperature and storm activity can be felt across nearly every continent.
El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are known to shift rainfall patterns in many different parts of the world. Although they vary somewhat from one El Niño to the next, the strongest shifts remain fairly consistent in these regions and seasons shown in the map below.
Sources: Ropelewski, C.F. and M.S. Halpert, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate., 2.268 284. Mason and Goddard, 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 619-638.
Globally, El Nino increases average temperatures. Hotter air holds more moisture so in certain regions, storms may be stronger and in others, evaporation may increase drought risks.
In some regions, El Niño dramatically raises the risk of flooding and landslides. The western coast of South America, the southern United States and parts of East Africa tend to receive far more rainfall than usual, overwhelming rivers and saturating hillsides.
Meanwhile, the opposite problem strikes elsewhere: Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa and Central America often experience severe drought during El Niño years, increasing the risk of wildfires, crop failures and water shortages. The Indian monsoon also tends to weaken, putting hundreds of millions of people at risk of dry conditions during a season they depend on for agriculture.
El Niño also reshapes tropical storm patterns in notable ways. In the Atlantic, El Niño often means fewer hurricanes. They can, however, still occur with devastating impacts. In the eastern Pacific, El Niño often brings more frequent and stronger storms threatening Mexico and Central America.
The bottom line is that El Nino is not simply “good” or “bad” weather. It is a global reshuffling of risk.